vineri, 2 octombrie 2009

Stirile ultimelor zile

Incepem intai cu DOWn Jones care a facut o surpriza frumoasa aseara, un -2% sanatos si a inchis la 9500. Frumos. Dar dupa atatea starturi de scadere ratate, eu n-as scoate sampania din frigider pana nu ajunge la 8500. Si pana nu vad 7999 nu m-as grabi nici sa o deschid. De fapt abia la un 6999 as avea motiv de distractie... :)

RON-ul a avut si el o zi agitata ieri, urcand de la 4.18 la un 4.25 oficial BNR. Asta in timp ce pe piata interbancara s-a ajuns si la 4.28, deci o depreciere record de 10 bani intr-o singura zi. Sincronizarea crizei politice cu ziua stabiliri nivelului Euro pentru plata accizelor a fost facuta la mare arta. Se pare ca anul viitor vom plati accize cu 14,2% mai mari, la un curs BCE de 4,2688 lei/euro. N-a fost chiar 4.5 sau 5.0 dar mai e timp pana la sfarsitul anului. Sa vedem daca alunecarea RON-ului va mai continua cateva zile si in octombrie la fel ca anul trecut, inainte sa i se traga iar frana cu ocazia alegerilor sau sarbatorilor.

Revenim apoi pe plan international cu situatia dolarului, care incepe sa-si piarda tot mai mult rolul dominant de moneda internationala de rezerva:

FMI: Euro a ajuns la o cota de 27,5% in rezervele valutare mondiale
Moneda unica europeana continua sa isi mareasca atractia ca moneda de rezerva in detrimentul dolarului, ponderea sa in rezervele valutare mondiale urcand la 27,5% la jumatatea acestui an, de la 25,9% in martie, potrivit NewsIn care citeaza Bloomberg. Ponderea dolarului american in rezervele valutare din lume a coborat la 62,5% la finalul lunii iunie, de la 65% la sfarsitul primului trimestru. Pentru moneda americana este cea mai redusa cota ca moneda de rezerva pe plan mondial de la introducerea euro, in 1999, in timp ce pentru moneda europeana este cea mai mare pondere dupa aparitia sa.
Nici situatia FMI-ului nu e mult mai roz, in ultima vreme alternativele la acest fond incepand sa prinda tot mai multa forma. Dupa asiatici care au mai pus in primavara o caramida la temelia AMF, avem acum si tarile din America de sud incercand o cooperare in afara FMI. Urmeaza arabii, iar zvonurile spun ca pana si africanii vor sa puna bazele unui sistem asemanator:

Asia: Summers, Geithner Are Silent as IMF Loses Grip: William Pesek
The “Asian Monetary Fund,” so passionately derided by Summers and Geithner at the time, is back. There is little a crisis-plagued U.S. can do to stop Asia’s $120 billion foreign- exchange reserve pool. Its creation is the clearest sign yet that Asia is getting serious about combating the global crisis. Done right, it will bode well for the region’s outlook
Arabii: Monetary Union Ratification by Year-end
The four members of the Gulf Cooperation Council comprising Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar are expected to ratify the monetary union agreement by the end of this year, according to a top official.
America de Sud: S American leaders in bank deal
South American leaders have backed plans to create a development bank to finance projects in the region. The Bank of the South aims to be an alternative funding source to the likes of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
Mai aruncam apoi o privire pe site-ul lui Denninger care ne prezinta pulsul pietei in cifre concrete:

Tumbleweeds! (Chicago PMI)

Let's see.... besides the topline miss, we have prices paid up (bad), new orders down (bad), employment up 0.1% (marginally better to flat), inventories up (bad if you're not selling 'em!), supplier deliveries down (bad), production down (bad) and order backlogs collapsing (really bad.)

I know it probably gets old, but I told 'ya you were smoking 'dem "green shoots"!

(Still bullish are 'ya?)

Si tot intr-unul din ultimele sale articole am gasit o concluzie frumoasa, la care subscriu:

The Mainstream Fallacy Machine
One can lie, cheat and steal for quite some time, and the famous saying "the market can remain illogical for longer than you can remain solvent" is absolutely true. If you're a short-term trader there's money to be made there - I made a nice wad of it from close to the 666 lows up into the upper 800s on the S&P, simply because bets on the end of the world can only win once - and if you do win, you're not around to collect. As such I'll take the other side of that bet - when Hell's Gate beckons.

But in the end the math always wins and fraud is always exposed.

It may take years to happen, but it always does.

Din seria "nici o fapta buna nu ramane nepedepsita" va prezentam:

Bank of America Chief Resigns Under Fire
Mr. Lewis was initially hailed as a hero for swooping in to buy Merrill on the same weekend last September when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed. He soon may face civil securities charges from New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo over disclosures of Merrill's bonus payments and ballooning losses shortly before the takeover was completed in January.
Chinezii o tin in continuare pe a lor, ei stiu una si buna:

China Attempting to Secure 1/6th of Nigeria's Proven Oil Reserves
I feel like I'm posting the same story each month - the Chinese buying some long lived hard commodity assets to secure their national future (using money Americans send in each day) contrasted with the US handing money (that we borrow from the Chinese) out in all directions to create an aura of prosperity / recovery, and help win elections.
Si in final, un filmulet simpatic care sa ne destinda un pic. Recomand, chiar merita:

The Daily Show With Jon StewartMon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Ron Paul
Daily Show
Full Episodes
Political HumorRon Paul Interview

2 comentarii:

  1. chiar, "mare arta" a facut BNR-ul ;)
    ne-a invatat cam rau ...

  2. Mda, anul trecut am avut:

    Cred ca e mai relevant de fapt:

    5 sep 2008 - 3.55
    5 oct 2008 - 3.95
    23 oct 2008 - 3.50
    25 dec 2008 - 3.95
    12 ian 2009 - 4.30

    Mergand pe repetarea schemei de atunci am avea:

    4.18 sep 2009
    continuarea cresterii peste 4.5 in zilele urmatoare
    posibila scadere de alegeri inapoi la un 4.20
    inapoi peste 4.5 de sarbatori si 5.0 in ianuarie 2010

    Dar cu toate ca situatia economica si crizele trag in jos, alegerile si BNR-ul impins de FMI vor continua sa traga in sus.

    Ramane sa vedem cat ma vai dura joaca asta de-a soarecele si pisica. Daca FMI-ul e disperat si cam este, atunci suportul lor si joaca BNR-ului mai poate continua din pacate o vreme.