vineri, 23 octombrie 2009

Aurul, specula si previziunile

Trei articole deosebite fiecare in felul sau.

Primul arunca inca un pic de lumina asupra relatiei intre banii de hartie si aur: Fair Value Gold?
What do you think allowed for 20 years of dollar expansion with no gold price inflation? It was the soaking-up of newly created dollars as people all over the world held them as a store of value. Wall Street exploded as the enabler of this misguided demand, while the real demand was for the dollar's transactional ease. China followed, as did much of the developed world. But now this trend has reversed. This is why van Eeden's money supply analysis is meaningless. I fully expect transactional dollar demand to swell from time to time as large holders of debt liquidate into a new form of savings. This is because that fading value must pass through dollars to get where it is going. But you must understand that whatever the USDX does, it does not represent new savings flowing in.

Al doilea e o poveste excelenta, desi usor dramatica, despre modul in care se desfasoara lucrurile la nivel inalt. Recomand cu multa caldura, in special ultimele pagini: Wall Street's Naked Swindle
On Tuesday, March 11th, 2008, somebody — nobody knows who — made one of the craziest bets Wall Street has ever seen. The mystery figure spent $1.7 million on a series of options, gambling that shares in the venerable investment bank Bear Stearns would lose more than half their value in nine days or less. It was madness — "like buying 1.7 million lottery tickets," according to one financial analyst.

But what's even crazier is that the bet paid.

Iar in final inca o privire interesanta asupra a ceea ce s-ar putea sa ne rezerve viitorul: Coping: With the Bad Part of 2010

Had a most interesting conversation with Arch Crawford last night about what's ahead, not only for the ugly part of this year's market (wait a week or two and you won't be saying "huh?") but also about the really ugly part of 2010; which is you want to mark it down should show up sometime between late July and Early August of next year by his work.

Crawford ( about $250/yr ) has been writing a financial newsletter for about 32 years and was "ranked #1 market timer for the 2008 calendar year" by Hulbert's Financial Digest. What's interesting about Crawford's work is that it's an astrologically based report - although other cycles are considered, too - which makes it interesting when a person (like me) is trying to line up periods where multiple predictive systems are all pretty much saying the same thing.

Just as the predictive linguistics work is pointing to big market moves starting as early as late Sunday (Monday in Asian trading time) Crawford's work shows there's a rough patch there.

But more worrisome is his take on the mid-2010 period. "It's about the worst we've ever seen," he told me.

How bad is bad?

"Well, when something is worse than the Revolutionary War, World War I, the Great Depression, and World War II, that's bad - it's the worst I've seen the charts in over 200-years.

2 comentarii:

  1. Nelegat de topicul acesta, dar cand mai adaugi "episoadele" de la topicul legat de alternative energetice?

  2. De doua saptamani tot zic ca mai adaug macar un episod, dar m-am luat cu altele.

    Incerc saptamana asta... :)