miercuri, 2 septembrie 2009

Din nou cateva linkuri

Una calda, una rece. De la filmuletul de ieri, azi iar la economie si burse.

Ieri DOW a luat-o la vale cu 2 procente, iar azi avem iar un inceput rosu pe fondul anuntului legat de joburi. In timp ce semnele si avertizarile in ce priveste inceperea trendului descrescator pe care il asteptam de acum 2 luni, devin tot mai dese.

Could We Have Another 1987-Like Crash in the Not Too Distant Future?
Whether one looks at seasonal patterns over the last 20, 50, or even 100 years, September has consistently proven to be THE worst month of the year by a sizable margin as the enumerable folks at Bespoke Investment Group show below.
Mda, cica septembrie aduce ghinion, chiar daca in rest graficele par normale. Hehe, sa fie sanatos cine se ia numai dupa grafice in ziua de azi. Cred ca cititul in cafea are mai mult succes in ultima vreme. Oare ce prevedeau graficele toamna trecuta, inainte de falimentul Lehmann ? Evident ca nu prevedeau nici o lebada neagra... :)

U.S. Markets flashing strong warning

At best, this stampede into these high-risk stocks represents “irrational exuberance”, and at worst an example of greed-blinded investors chasing a “rally” - which has been shunned by U.S. “insiders” for six, solid months.

Mda, faptul ca unii spun una si fac alta nu e nimic nou. Si nu e mai linistitoare nici ideea ca Citigroup, AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac adica niste companii aflate pana peste gat in mizerii reprezinta acum peste 40% din volumele tranzactionate.

Nici faptul ca de curand Chinezii au invatat de la americani jocul de-a plata datoriilor sau mai bine zis "amanarea" lor atunci cand nu iti mai convine:

Markets hit by China commodity default
A report that Chinese state-owned companies will be allowed to walk away from loss-making commodity derivative trades provoked anger and dismay among investment bankers on Monday as they feared it may set a damaging precedent.
O diferenta intre americani si chinezi e ca primii se ascund in manevre complicate atunci cand FED-ul incearca sa-si cumpere propriile datorii prin intermediari, iar ultimii recunoasc pe fata ca n-au de gand sa mai inghita tzepe de genul asta:

ROFL! China Tells IBs: Stuff It!

See what lawless behavior gets you folks?

You start this crap - selling worthless paper, intentionally turning a blind eye to fraud, profiting from fraud, screwing consumers and foreigners alike and guess what?

BINGO! A foreign government that runs a command economy says "Ok, you think that was cute? Try this!"

Ar mai fi deci si diferenta ca mai nou chinezii isi permit sa faca treaba asta, cu toata supararea "de fatada" a celorlalti care fac un joc mult mai murdar, insa mai ascuns din cauza ca puterea lor economica e si ea tot de fatada. Oricum, articolele lui Denninger devin tot mai simpatice in ultima vreme:

Impending Crash?
The Shanghai market has already lost roughly 25% from its recent peak, and it took just three weeks to lose what required roughly three months to put on.

How do you like those odds folks? Pay close attention to the lessons from the East, least you get to learn them the hard way right here.

A 25% loss from the recent highs on the SPX places the S&P 500 around 775.

I smell a repeat of 2001/2002, when the very same "analysts" said the bear market was over and everyone jumped back into the pool going into the end of 2001, only to get destroyed in the collapse that followed and took out the 2001 low.

Heh, I might be wrong on this, but those who "believed" in the Shanghai market are missing 1/4 of their money - so far.

Mda, se pare ca noul trend din Shanghai are toate sansele sa devina la moda si in NY. Pentru ca in caz contrar, in urma pomparii de bani care s-a facut vara asta, dolarul risca sa o ia din nou la vale si nici varianta asta nu convine... :)

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