miercuri, 22 aprilie 2009

Linkurile zilnice - E2020

Continuand postul precendent cu bancile avem AICI un grafic excelent. Cu explicatiile de rigoare: Big bank profits are bogus! Care arata cat de grozav stau exact bancile care trambitau cele mai mari asa-zise castiguri zilele trecute:

What Explains the Huge Gap Between
Official Declarations and Our Analysis?

We all use essentially the same data. And conceptually, the analytical approach is also similar.

The primary difference is that the regulators have an agenda: Instead of protecting the people from bank failures, they're trying harder than ever to protect failed banks from the people. Specifically ...

• They have forever hidden the names of the banks on the FDIC's "Problem List," making it almost impossible for average consumers to get prior warnings of troubles.

• They have never disclosed their own official ratings of the banks — the CAMELS ratings — making it difficult for the public to find safe institutions they can trust.

• They have religiously underestimated — or understated — the depth and breadth of the debt crisis.

• And as I explained a moment ago, they have rigged their recent stress tests to give passing grades to all of the nation's 14 largest banks, sending the false signal that even the most dangerous among them are somehow "safe."

Si inca un articol simpatic care contine niste citate dragute pe care le-am si reprodus mai jos partial: Green Shoots Are For Suckers

“Don’t count your recoveries before they’re hatched.”

So says Paul Krugman, who agrees with our assessment of the economy. As we noted a few weeks ago, its not getting better, its only getting worse more slowly.

And the same damn fools who missed the oncoming freight train in the first place are now busy declaring its all clear. They were wrong before and they are wrong now.

Evident, am pastrat pentru final ce era mai bun. Adica ultimul articol al celor de la E2020. Care asa cum am mai explicat, au un istoric foarte bun al previziunilor in ultimii 2 ani. Au nimerit cam 80% din evenimente, inclusiv sau in special pe cele legate de criza actuala. Recomand lectura intregului articol, la fel ca si in celelalte cazuri:

Summer 2009: The international monetary system’s breakdown is underway

In this issue of the GEAB, our researchers anticipate the different forms a US default will take at the end of summer 2009, a US default which can no longer be concealed concealable from this April (most taxes are collected in April in the US) onward.

In this issue of the GEAB (N°34), our researchers focus on how to explain the « mystery of gold price ». Indeed, our seekers (of information, not gold) identified a number of interesting leads to understand why the price of gold has been fluctuating around the same level for months when the number of gold buyers is constantly increasing and demand for coins and bars far exceeds available supply in many countries.

In rest cu bursele ce sa mai zic, ca am zis destule. Nebunia e tot mai clara, oscilatiile tot mai incontrolabile. Sunt frumos de urmarit, dar de pe margine. Eu astept doar sa vad cand incepe scaderea DOW si o ultima apreciere a dolarului inainte de inflatia finala. Sa nu-mi ziceti ca voi inca mai credeti ca revenirea actuala la burse semnalizeaza finalul "crizei"... :)

A crescut DOW la 7500-8000 cum am zis cand inca era la 6900 ? A crescut. De la 6900 cat era pe 11 martie cand vorbeam eu de posibil bulltrap si pana la 7900 cat era pe 26 martie. A inceput inversarea de trend in saptamana G20 cum am zis ? A inceput. Dupa saptamana G20 au mai fost oscilatii, dar cresterea s-a oprit si media a ramas cam in aceeasi zona de 8000 la DOW.

Daca mai incepe si scaderea spre 6000 pana in iunie cum am zis iarasi, ce mai vreti de la mine ? Sfaturi de investitii ? Am mai zis ca sfatul meu acum e sa stati cat mai departe de burse sau banci. Stiu ca se pot face bani acum la oscilatiile majore care apar. Dar merita stresul asta acuma doar pentru a mai face sau cel mai probabil a mai pierde niste economii ? Mai ales cand banilor in general nu li se mai prevede un viitor prea indelungat ?

Repet ca eu ma uit la burse doar pentru a gasi semnale ale evolutiei economice viitoare. Si ma distrez cu "previziunile" doar for fun. Asa ca lasati prostiile. Ca altfel incep sa bag si eu disclaimere ca altii: articolele acestea nu constituie sfaturi pentru investitii. Pentru reactii adverse consultati medicul sau farmacistul... :)

2 comentarii:

  1. 200 years Dow/Gold ratio:


  2. Am mai discutat pe grafice asemanatoare aici:

    Investitii in aur