joi, 19 februarie 2009

Evaluarea situatiei

O zi aparent calma azi la bursa NY. Dow a tzopait anemic in jurul valorii de 7552 cu care incheiase ieri. Oamenii au incercat sa-si linga ranile din ultimele zile si sa-si revada strategiile.

De ce aparent ? Pentru ca din punctul meu de vedere tot aurul ramane cheia. Ca un fel de indicator barometru pentru increderea traderilor, asa cum ziceam si aici: Previziuni bursa

Iar aurul a facut iar o surpriza frumoasa, urcand la 985 astazi... :)

Cel mai tare este ca voci precum a lui Jim Rogers sau Peter Schiff sau Ron Paul sau Nouriel Roubini se fac tot mai auzite in ultima vreme: Investitorul Jim Rogers: Desfiintati FMI-ul si Banca Mondiala ca sa putem iesi din criza!

In aceeasi ordine de idei va mai dau un link interesant. Niste baieti care au facut o analiza foarte pertinenta in ultimii ani si au avertizat de criza inca din 2006.

Au prevazut crashul din septembrie 2008 inca din februarie 2008: Global systemic crisis / September 2008 - Phase of collapse of US real economy

Au avertizat despre un nou punct critic in martie 2009 inca din decembrie 2008: Global systemic crisis – New tipping-point in March 2009: ’When the world becomes aware that this crisis is worse than the 1930s crisis’

Iar ultima lor predictie de acum 3 zile o gasiti aici: 4th quarter 2009 – Beginning of Phase 5 of the global systemic crisis: phase of global geopolitical dislocation

Un scurt citat mai semnificativ:

Back in February 2006, LEAP/E2020 estimated that the global systemic crisis would unfold in 4 main structural phases: trigger, acceleration, impact and decanting phases. This process enabled us to properly anticipate events until now. However our team has now come to the conclusion that, due to the global leaders’ incapacity to fully realise the scope of the ongoing crisis (made obvious by their determination to cure the consequences rather than the causes of this crisis), the global systemic crisis will enter a fifth phase in the fourth quarter of 2009, a phase of global geopolitical dislocation.

According to LEAP/E2020, this new stage of the crisis will be shaped by two major processes happening in two parallel sequences:

A. Two major processes:

1. Disappearance of the financial base (Dollar & Debt) all over the world

2. Fragmentation of the interests of the global system’s big players and blocks

B. Two parallel sequences:

1. Quick disintegration of the current international system altogether

2. Strategic dislocation of big global players.

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